Woolworths Group Ltd · Valuation
ASX: WOW · Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores
Fair value estimates vs price
A$ per share · models updated 26 Jul 2026
258.1% above fair value A$10.94, the median of our 3 model estimates.
Different models answer different questions. A wide spread between them usually means the market is pricing growth or risk that historical figures don't capture. Estimates are recomputed as new results and prices land.
Discounted cash flow
A$10.82Projects the company's free cash flow forward and discounts it back to today, the most fundamental measure of what a business is worth.
EPS growth model
A$10.94Projects earnings per share forward at the historical growth rate, then discounts back to a present value.
P/E multiple
A$21.01Applies the historical median price-to-earnings ratio to current earnings per share.
Trailing P/E history
Monthly price ÷ trailing diluted EPS · extremes above 100 excluded from stats
Per-share fundamentals
The inputs behind the models
| FY | EPS | Book value / sh | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.78 | $4.04 | $2.0B |
| 2024 | $0.09 | $4.57 | $1.8B |
| 2023 | $1.32 | $5.37 | $2.3B |
| 2022 | $1.26 | $4.96 | $1.0B |
| 2021 | $1.64 | $1.38 | $2.2B |
| 2020 | $0.93 | $7.14 | $2.4B |
| 2019 | $2.05 | $7.98 | $957.0M |
| 2018 | $1.32 | $8.32 | $1.1B |
| 2017 | $1.11 | $7.67 | $1.2B |
| 2016 | $-0.98 | $6.95 | $419.2M |
Looking for value across the whole market? The ASX screener lists every covered company trading below our fair-value models, refreshed each trading day.
What do the valuation models estimate Woolworths (WOW) shares are worth compared to the current price?
Three valuation models applied to Woolworths Group produce estimates well below the July 3, 2026 closing price of $39.78. The DCF valuation model estimates fair value at $10.82 per share, the EPS growth valuation model estimates $10.88, and the PE ratio valuation model estimates $20.9. All three approaches, despite using different inputs and methods, point to a similar conclusion: each estimate sits meaningfully under the traded price, though the models differ from one another by roughly a factor of two.
The current PE ratio of 51.0 is also well above the company's own five-year median PE of 26.79, meaning the shares are trading at close to double their typical historical earnings multiple on this measure. Whether that comparison is meaningful depends on whether current earnings are representative, since a low or unusually depressed earnings base can inflate a PE ratio even without a change in the underlying business.
For these estimates to be meaningful, diluted EPS would need to behave predictably enough for a PE-based or earnings-growth-based model to extrapolate from. Reported diluted EPS has instead ranged widely, from -$0.98 in FY2016 up to $2.05 in FY2019, down to just $0.09 in FY2024, before recovering to $0.78 in FY2025. This volatility in the earnings base is a reason to treat the valuation model outputs as sensitivity-dependent estimates rather than fixed benchmarks, particularly for the models that build directly on EPS trends.
AI-assisted analysis generated from Craytheon's verified financial data · Updated 4 Jul 2026 · How this works
Data is general information only, not financial advice. Figures are as reported in company filings (some ASX companies report in USD); share prices are AUD.