Telstra Group Ltd · Valuation
ASX: TLS · Communication Services · Telecom Services
Fair value estimates vs price
A$ per share · models updated 26 Jul 2026
147.0% above fair value A$1.98, the median of our 3 model estimates.
Different models answer different questions. A wide spread between them usually means the market is pricing growth or risk that historical figures don't capture. Estimates are recomputed as new results and prices land.
Discounted cash flow
A$0.42Projects the company's free cash flow forward and discounts it back to today, the most fundamental measure of what a business is worth.
EPS growth model
A$1.98Projects earnings per share forward at the historical growth rate, then discounts back to a present value.
P/E multiple
A$4.78Applies the historical median price-to-earnings ratio to current earnings per share.
Trailing P/E history
Monthly price ÷ trailing diluted EPS · extremes above 100 excluded from stats
Per-share fundamentals
The inputs behind the models
| FY | EPS | Book value / sh | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.19 | $1.41 | $3.5B |
| 2024 | $0.14 | $1.50 | $1.4B |
| 2023 | $0.17 | $1.54 | $2.4B |
| 2022 | $0.14 | $1.43 | $3.7B |
| 2021 | $0.16 | $1.28 | $3.5B |
| 2020 | $0.15 | $1.27 | $2.9B |
| 2019 | $0.18 | $1.22 | $3.5B |
| 2018 | $0.30 | $1.26 | $5.0B |
| 2017 | $0.33 | $1.22 | $4.1B |
| 2016 | $0.47 | $1.30 | $3.9B |
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What do valuation models estimate Telstra (TLS) shares are worth?
As of 2026-07-05, three valuation models are applied to Telstra Group against a last close of $4.98 on 2026-07-03. The P/E-ratio valuation model estimates $4.76 per share, the DCF model estimates $0.42, and the EPS-growth valuation model estimates $1.97. All three sit below the current share price, though the spread between the lowest and highest estimate is wide, reflecting how differently each method weighs the company's reported earnings history.
The current P/E ratio of 26.21 is modestly above the company's own five-year median P/E of 25.07, indicating the shares are trading close to, but slightly richer than, their recent historical norm on this measure. Diluted EPS itself has been uneven across the years on record, falling from $0.47 in FY2016 to as low as $0.14 in FY2022 and FY2024, before ticking up to $0.19 in FY2025.
Because the P/E and EPS-growth models are built directly on this earnings trajectory, and the DCF model depends on assumptions not disclosed here, each estimate carries the limitations of its own method rather than representing a single agreed figure. Given the earnings volatility across the ten years of results, how much weight any one model estimate deserves depends on whether that historical pattern is judged likely to continue, which these figures alone cannot determine. These outputs are model estimates, not investment recommendations.
AI-assisted analysis generated from Craytheon's verified financial data · Updated 4 Jul 2026 · How this works
Data is general information only, not financial advice. Figures are as reported in company filings (some ASX companies report in USD); share prices are AUD.