Aristocrat Leisure Ltd · Valuation
ASX: ALL · Consumer Cyclical · Gambling
Fair value estimates vs price
A$ per share · models updated 26 Jul 2026
Near fair value A$65.30, the median of our 3 model estimates.
Different models answer different questions. A wide spread between them usually means the market is pricing growth or risk that historical figures don't capture. Estimates are recomputed as new results and prices land.
Discounted cash flow
A$42.64Projects the company's free cash flow forward and discounts it back to today, the most fundamental measure of what a business is worth.
EPS growth model
A$76.44Projects earnings per share forward at the historical growth rate, then discounts back to a present value.
P/E multiple
A$65.30Applies the historical median price-to-earnings ratio to current earnings per share.
Trailing P/E history
Monthly price ÷ trailing diluted EPS · extremes above 100 excluded from stats
Per-share fundamentals
The inputs behind the models
| FY | EPS | Book value / sh | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2.62 | $10.45 | $1.6B |
| 2024 | $2.04 | $9.81 | $1.3B |
| 2023 | $2.21 | $10.24 | $1.3B |
| 2022 | $1.42 | $9.04 | $977.2M |
| 2021 | $1.28 | $6.06 | $1.1B |
| 2020 | $2.15 | $4.96 | $775.1M |
| 2019 | $1.09 | $3.35 | $837.6M |
| 2018 | $0.85 | $2.71 | $735.7M |
| 2017 | $0.78 | $2.11 | $675.2M |
| 2016 | $0.55 | $1.69 | $498.0M |
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What do valuation models estimate Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) shares are worth versus the current price?
The valuation models attached to Aristocrat Leisure's latest results estimate per-share fair value across a wide range against the $61.40 close recorded on 3 July 2026: a DCF model of $42.64, a P/E-ratio-based model of $65.30, and an EPS-growth model of $76.44. As with any model output, these are estimates derived from assumptions about growth, earnings and multiples rather than statements of what the shares are worth.
The current P/E ratio of 23.48 is slightly below the company's own five-year median P/E of 24.97, suggesting the market is currently pricing the shares a touch more conservatively than its recent historical average multiple — though a single ratio comparison doesn't capture shifts in earnings quality. Diluted EPS has moved from $0.55 in FY2016 to $2.615 in FY2025 non-linearly, including a jump to $2.15 in FY2020 and a dip to $2.04 in FY2024.
For the P/E-based and EPS-growth valuations to be meaningful, the recent earnings trajectory would need to be representative of what follows rather than a one-off swing. For the DCF estimate specifically, its underlying cash-flow and discount-rate assumptions are not disclosed in the company's reported figures, so its distance from the other two model outputs and from the current price is worth weighing accordingly.
AI-assisted analysis generated from Craytheon's verified financial data · Updated 5 Jul 2026 · How this works
Data is general information only, not financial advice. Figures are as reported in company filings (some ASX companies report in USD); share prices are AUD.