The a2 Milk Company Ltd · Valuation
ASX: A2M · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods Reports in NZD
Fair value estimates vs price
A$ per share · models updated 26 Jul 2026
91.5% above fair value A$3.63, the median of our 3 model estimates.
Different models answer different questions. A wide spread between them usually means the market is pricing growth or risk that historical figures don't capture. Estimates are recomputed as new results and prices land.
Discounted cash flow
A$2.90Projects the company's free cash flow forward and discounts it back to today, the most fundamental measure of what a business is worth.
EPS growth model
A$3.63Projects earnings per share forward at the historical growth rate, then discounts back to a present value.
P/E multiple
A$8.45Applies the historical median price-to-earnings ratio to current earnings per share.
Trailing P/E history
Monthly price ÷ trailing diluted EPS · extremes above 100 excluded from stats
Per-share fundamentals
The inputs behind the models
| FY | EPS | Book value / sh | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.28 | $1.97 | $197.8M |
| 2024 | $0.23 | $1.73 | $235.2M |
| 2023 | $0.21 | $1.56 | $101.2M |
| 2022 | $0.16 | $1.61 | $198.9M |
| 2021 | $0.11 | $1.46 | $83.7M |
| 2020 | $0.52 | $1.53 | $421.6M |
| 2019 | $0.39 | $1.06 | $286.4M |
| 2018 | $0.26 | $0.75 | $228.6M |
| 2017 | $0.12 | $0.33 | $98.3M |
| 2016 | $0.04 | $0.19 | $20.6M |
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What do valuation models say a2 Milk (A2M) shares are worth?
Three valuation models, dated 2026-07-05, produce differing estimates of per-share worth for the a2 Milk Company against the $7.62 close recorded on 2026-07-03. A P/E-ratio-based model estimates $8.44, an EPS-growth model estimates $3.63, and a discounted-cash-flow model estimates $2.88 — all below the current share price, with the DCF and EPS-growth figures markedly lower than the P/E-based one.
The company's current P/E ratio of 33.05 sits below its own five-year median P/E of 36.62. Diluted EPS has ranged from $0.0431 in FY2016 to a peak of $0.52 in FY2020, a trough of $0.11 in FY2021, and $0.28 in FY2025, illustrating how much an earnings-based estimate can shift depending on which year's earnings feed it.
For these estimates to be meaningful, the assumptions behind each model — including the earnings and growth figures used as inputs — would need to hold going forward. The wide spread between the DCF, EPS-growth and P/E-based figures here reflects differences in methodology and inputs rather than pointing to one settled fair value; each remains a model output, not a reported fact.
AI-assisted analysis generated from Craytheon's verified financial data · Updated 5 Jul 2026 · How this works
Data is general information only, not financial advice. Figures are as reported in company filings (some ASX companies report in USD); share prices are AUD.