Transurban Group · Valuation
ASX: TCL · Industrials · Infrastructure Operations
Fair value estimates vs price
A$ per share · models updated 26 Jul 2026
83.5% above fair value A$7.92, the median of our 2 model estimates.
Different models answer different questions. A wide spread between them usually means the market is pricing growth or risk that historical figures don't capture. Estimates are recomputed as new results and prices land.
EPS growth model
A$0.84Projects earnings per share forward at the historical growth rate, then discounts back to a present value.
P/E multiple
A$15.00Applies the historical median price-to-earnings ratio to current earnings per share.
Discounted cash flow
Not availableProjects the company's free cash flow forward and discounts it back to today, the most fundamental measure of what a business is worth.
Why it's missing: the recent free cash flow record doesn't support a reliable projection.
Trailing P/E history
Monthly price ÷ trailing diluted EPS · extremes above 100 excluded from stats
Per-share fundamentals
The inputs behind the models
| FY | EPS | Book value / sh | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.04 | $3.06 | $608.0M |
| 2024 | $0.11 | $3.78 | $515.0M |
| 2023 | $0.02 | $4.32 | $560.0M |
| 2022 | $0.01 | $5.09 | $861.0M |
| 2021 | $-0.15 | $4.04 | $294.0M |
| 2020 | $-0.04 | $3.20 | $-267.0M |
| 2019 | $0.07 | $3.84 | $1.1B |
| 2018 | $0.23 | $3.16 | $922.0M |
| 2017 | $0.12 | $2.84 | $706.0M |
| 2016 | $0.05 | $3.26 | $832.0M |
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What do valuation models estimate Transurban Group (TCL) is worth per share?
As of July 5, 2026, against a share price of $14.48 (July 3, 2026 close), the valuation models produce two distinct estimates for Transurban Group. A PE-ratio-based model estimates fair value at $15.06 per share, roughly in line with the traded price, while a separate EPS-growth-based model estimates just $0.85 per share, well below where the stock trades. Because these are model outputs rather than fixed values, the gap between them reflects how sensitive each approach is to its underlying assumptions.
The company's current PE ratio stands at 336.74, slightly below its own five-year median PE of 350.23. Both figures are high in absolute terms, reflecting diluted EPS that has been thin and volatile: $0.0064 in FY2022, $0.0208 in FY2023, $0.11 in FY2024 and $0.043 in FY2025, following outright losses of -$0.0404 in FY2020 and -$0.15 in FY2021.
For the PE-ratio model's estimate to be meaningful, the relationship between current earnings and that historical PE range would need to persist; for the EPS-growth model's much lower estimate, its projected growth trajectory off a small and swinging earnings base would need to hold. Given diluted EPS has moved between negative and positive across the past decade, small changes in reported earnings could shift either estimate materially.
AI-assisted analysis generated from Craytheon's verified financial data · Updated 4 Jul 2026 · How this works
Data is general information only, not financial advice. Figures are as reported in company filings (some ASX companies report in USD); share prices are AUD.