Origin Energy Ltd · Valuation
ASX: ORG · Utilities · Diversified
Fair value estimates vs price
A$ per share · models updated 26 Jul 2026
5,800.0% above fair value A$0.18, our discounted cash flow estimate.
Different models answer different questions. A wide spread between them usually means the market is pricing growth or risk that historical figures don't capture. Estimates are recomputed as new results and prices land.
Discounted cash flow
A$0.18Projects the company's free cash flow forward and discounts it back to today, the most fundamental measure of what a business is worth.
EPS growth model
Not availableProjects earnings per share forward at the historical growth rate, then discounts back to a present value.
Why it's missing: it needs a longer record of earnings and market prices.
P/E multiple
Not availableApplies the historical median price-to-earnings ratio to current earnings per share.
Why it's missing: it needs a longer record of earnings and market prices.
Trailing P/E history
Monthly price ÷ trailing diluted EPS · extremes above 100 excluded from stats
Per-share fundamentals
The inputs behind the models
| FY | EPS | Book value / sh | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.86 | $5.76 | $-1.0B |
| 2024 | $0.81 | $5.49 | $461.0M |
| 2023 | $0.61 | $5.15 | $576.0M |
| 2022 | $-0.81 | $5.72 | $2.5B |
| 2021 | $-1.30 | $5.58 | $521.0M |
| 2019 | $0.69 | $7.46 | $1.1B |
| 2018 | $0.12 | $6.70 | $798.0M |
| 2017 | $-1.27 | $6.51 | $870.0M |
| 2016 | $-0.37 | $9.21 | $713.0M |
| 2015 | $-0.52 | $11.19 | $99.0M |
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What do valuation models suggest Origin Energy (ORG) shares are worth?
The valuation model in Origin Energy's reported figures, a discounted cash flow (DCF) estimate dated 5 July 2026, places fair value at $0.18 per share. That compares with a share price of $10.36 as of 3 July 2026, a gap of more than fifty-fold. Model estimates of this kind rest on assumptions about future cash flows, growth and discount rates, so a divergence this large from the traded price is best read as a prompt to scrutinise those assumptions rather than as a definitive statement of value.
On reported earnings, the current share price implies a price-to-earnings ratio of about 12.0x, based on FY2025 diluted earnings per share of $0.86. Diluted EPS over the five most recent fiscal years, FY2021 to FY2025, ranged from a loss of $1.30 per share to a profit of $0.86, with a median of $0.61; applying the current price to that median EPS implies a multiple closer to 17.0x. The current multiple sitting below the level implied by the five-year median suggests recent earnings are higher relative to the share price than the historical middle of the range.
For either figure to serve as a meaningful guide, certain assumptions would need to hold. The P/E comparison assumes FY2025's $1.480B net income and $0.86 EPS reflect a sustained level of profitability rather than a cyclical peak, given diluted EPS was negative in two of the prior four years, FY2021 and FY2022. The DCF estimate's usefulness depends on the accuracy of the cash flow, growth and discount-rate assumptions feeding the model, none of which are detailed in Origin Energy's reported results.
AI-assisted analysis generated from Craytheon's verified financial data · Updated 4 Jul 2026 · How this works
Data is general information only, not financial advice. Figures are as reported in company filings (some ASX companies report in USD); share prices are AUD.