National Australia Bank Ltd · Valuation
ASX: NAB · Financials · Diversified Banks
Fair value estimates vs price
A$ per share · models updated 26 Jul 2026
44.4% above fair value A$27.98, the median of our 4 model estimates.
Different models answer different questions. A wide spread between them usually means the market is pricing growth or risk that historical figures don't capture. Estimates are recomputed as new results and prices land.
Dividend discount model
A$16.70Values the bank as the sum of its expected future dividends, discounted back to today. Suits banks because payouts are the main way they return capital.
P/B multiple
A$32.72Applies the bank's historical price-to-book ratio to its current book value per share. Book value is the anchor metric for lenders.
P/E multiple
A$31.01Applies the historical median price-to-earnings ratio to current earnings per share.
EPS growth model
A$24.95Projects earnings per share forward at the historical growth rate, then discounts back to a present value.
Trailing P/E history
Monthly price ÷ trailing diluted EPS · extremes above 100 excluded from stats
Per-share fundamentals
The inputs behind the models
| FY | EPS | Book value / sh | Dividend / sh |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2.20 | $20.32 | $1.54 |
| 2024 | $2.23 | $18.89 | $1.43 |
| 2023 | $2.29 | $18.07 | $1.27 |
| 2022 | $2.06 | $17.04 | $1.16 |
| 2021 | $1.85 | $17.73 | $0.76 |
| 2020 | $0.81 | $18.39 | $0.70 |
| 2019 | $1.64 | $18.39 | $1.08 |
| 2018 | $1.94 | $17.93 | $1.44 |
| 2017 | $1.89 | $17.86 | $1.65 |
| 2016 | $0.16 | $18.37 | $1.64 |
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What do valuation models say National Australia Bank (NAB) is worth compared to its share price?
Four separate valuation models applied to National Australia Bank produce a wide spread of fair-value estimates relative to a share price of $38.57 as of 3 July 2026. The P/E-ratio model estimates $31.01 per share, the EPS-growth model $24.95, and the P/B-ratio model $32.51 - all below the current price. The dividend discount model estimates just $16.70, less than half the share price. None of these figures should be read as a target price; each reflects a different set of assumptions about earnings, book value, or dividends.
National Australia Bank's shares currently trade on a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.54, above the company's own five-year median P/E of 14.1, suggesting the market is pricing the shares at a premium to their recent historical multiple. Diluted earnings per share moved from $2.06 in FY2022 to a peak of $2.29 in FY2023 before easing to $2.23 in FY2024 and $2.20 in FY2025, a growth pattern the EPS-growth valuation model would need to extrapolate forward for its $24.95 estimate to hold.
For these estimates to be meaningful, each model's underlying assumptions need to hold: the P/E and P/B models assume earnings and book value continue to justify a multiple similar to the company's own recent history, the EPS-growth model assumes past earnings growth persists, and the dividend discount model depends on assumed future dividend payments and a discount rate not detailed in the estimate itself. These remain model outputs, not certainties, and none should be treated as a guaranteed value for the stock.
AI-assisted analysis generated from Craytheon's verified financial data · Updated 4 Jul 2026 · How this works
Data is general information only, not financial advice. Figures are as reported in company filings (some ASX companies report in USD); share prices are AUD.