Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd · Valuation
ASX: HVN · Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Fair value estimates vs price
A$ per share · models updated 26 Jul 2026
21.8% above fair value A$3.85, the median of our 3 model estimates.
Different models answer different questions. A wide spread between them usually means the market is pricing growth or risk that historical figures don't capture. Estimates are recomputed as new results and prices land.
Discounted cash flow
A$4.90Projects the company's free cash flow forward and discounts it back to today, the most fundamental measure of what a business is worth.
EPS growth model
A$3.21Projects earnings per share forward at the historical growth rate, then discounts back to a present value.
P/E multiple
A$3.85Applies the historical median price-to-earnings ratio to current earnings per share.
Trailing P/E history
Monthly price ÷ trailing diluted EPS · extremes above 100 excluded from stats
Per-share fundamentals
The inputs behind the models
| FY | EPS | Book value / sh | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.42 | $3.88 | $510.7M |
| 2024 | $0.28 | $3.63 | $494.4M |
| 2023 | $0.43 | $3.58 | $492.6M |
| 2022 | $0.65 | $3.44 | $502.4M |
| 2021 | $0.67 | $3.12 | $443.6M |
| 2020 | $0.39 | $2.83 | $963.1M |
| 2019 | $0.34 | $2.76 | $278.6M |
| 2018 | $0.32 | $2.53 | $360.3M |
| 2017 | $0.39 | $2.42 | $335.8M |
| 2016 | $0.30 | $2.32 | $369.5M |
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Is Harvey Norman (HVN) stock trading above or below what valuation models estimate it is worth?
Three valuation approaches applied to Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd produce a spread of estimates as of 2026-07-05: a DCF model estimate of $4.90 per share, a P/E ratio-based estimate of $3.68, and an EPS growth-based estimate of $3.07. Against the July 3, 2026 closing price of $4.64, the DCF estimate sits modestly above the current price, while the P/E ratio and EPS growth estimates both sit below it.
The company's current P/E ratio of 11.05 is above its own five-year median P/E of 8.77, a gap that helps explain why the P/E ratio-based estimate lands below the current share price: applying a lower, more historically typical multiple to reported earnings yields a smaller value per share. Diluted earnings per share have swung from $0.67 in FY2021 to $0.28 in FY2024 and $0.42 in FY2025, and both the P/E ratio and EPS growth estimates are sensitive to which of these figures is used as the earnings base.
These figures are model outputs, not certainties. The DCF estimate depends on cash flow and discount-rate assumptions not detailed here, while the P/E ratio and EPS growth estimates depend on the reported earnings history continuing to be a reasonable guide going forward. For any of these estimates to be a meaningful signal of value, the underlying earnings trend and the multiple applied to it would need to hold, which past reported results alone cannot guarantee.
AI-assisted analysis generated from Craytheon's verified financial data · Updated 4 Jul 2026 · How this works
Data is general information only, not financial advice. Figures are as reported in company filings (some ASX companies report in USD); share prices are AUD.