CSL Ltd · Valuation
ASX: CSL · Health Care · Biotechnology Reports in USD
Fair value estimates vs price
A$ per share · models updated 26 Jul 2026
58.1% below fair value A$272.72, the median of our 3 model estimates.
Different models answer different questions. A wide spread between them usually means the market is pricing growth or risk that historical figures don't capture. Estimates are recomputed as new results and prices land.
Discounted cash flow
A$96.75Projects the company's free cash flow forward and discounts it back to today, the most fundamental measure of what a business is worth.
EPS growth model
A$277.41Projects earnings per share forward at the historical growth rate, then discounts back to a present value.
P/E multiple
A$272.72Applies the historical median price-to-earnings ratio to current earnings per share.
Trailing P/E history
Monthly price ÷ trailing diluted EPS · extremes above 100 excluded from stats
Per-share fundamentals
The inputs behind the models
| FY | EPS | Book value / sh | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $6.18 | $44.05 | $2.5B |
| 2024 | $5.45 | $39.99 | $1.5B |
| 2023 | $6.89 | $36.84 | $1.4B |
| 2022 | $4.80 | $31.01 | $1.9B |
| 2021 | $5.24 | $18.37 | $2.0B |
| 2020 | $4.62 | $14.33 | $1.2B |
| 2019 | $4.23 | $11.57 | $351.5M |
| 2018 | $2.80 | $8.99 | $864.0M |
| 2017 | $2.93 | $6.93 | $391.9M |
| 2016 | $2.68 | $5.54 | $628.4M |
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What do valuation models estimate CSL (ASX: CSL) shares are worth?
As of 2026-07-05, three valuation approaches applied to CSL Ltd produce noticeably different results against the $121.81 close recorded on 2026-07-03. The DCF model estimates fair value at $97.22 per share, below the current price. The PE-ratio-based model estimates $280.64 and the EPS-growth-based model estimates $285.47, both far above the current price. This spread between a below-price DCF estimate and two well-above-price multiple-based estimates means the three models point in different directions, and none should be read as a settled figure.
Part of that gap traces to the current PE ratio of 13.68 sitting well below the company's own five-year median PE of 31.52. Models that lean on reversion toward a historical multiple, such as the PE-ratio-based and EPS-growth estimates, effectively assume the market re-rates the shares back toward that higher median. For those estimates to be meaningful, the five-year median PE would need to remain a relevant benchmark going forward, and diluted earnings per share, which moved from $2.68 in FY2016 to $6.18 in FY2025 with dips in FY2018, FY2022, and FY2024, would need to keep growing along a broadly similar path rather than repeating those interruptions.
The DCF estimate rests on a different set of assumptions about future cash flows rather than on the historical PE multiple, which helps explain why it lands below the current price while the multiple-based models land above it. Given how far apart the three figures are, each should be treated as one estimate among several rather than as a single fair-value conclusion.
AI-assisted analysis generated from Craytheon's verified financial data · Updated 5 Jul 2026 · How this works
Data is general information only, not financial advice. Figures are as reported in company filings (some ASX companies report in USD); share prices are AUD.