Bega Cheese Ltd · Valuation
ASX: BGA · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Fair value estimates vs price
A$ per share · models updated 26 Jul 2026
110.1% above fair value A$2.87, our discounted cash flow estimate.
Different models answer different questions. A wide spread between them usually means the market is pricing growth or risk that historical figures don't capture. Estimates are recomputed as new results and prices land.
Discounted cash flow
A$2.87Projects the company's free cash flow forward and discounts it back to today, the most fundamental measure of what a business is worth.
EPS growth model
Not availableProjects earnings per share forward at the historical growth rate, then discounts back to a present value.
Why it's missing: earnings were negative in FY25, so an earnings-based estimate isn't meaningful.
P/E multiple
Not availableApplies the historical median price-to-earnings ratio to current earnings per share.
Why it's missing: earnings were negative in FY25, so an earnings-based estimate isn't meaningful.
Trailing P/E history
Monthly price ÷ trailing diluted EPS · extremes above 100 excluded from stats
Per-share fundamentals
The inputs behind the models
| FY | EPS | Book value / sh | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $-0.03 | $3.21 | $70.6M |
| 2024 | $0.10 | $3.31 | $59.7M |
| 2023 | $-0.75 | $3.29 | $-59.9M |
| 2022 | $0.08 | $4.15 | $86.4M |
| 2021 | $0.29 | $4.76 | $79.2M |
| 2020 | $0.10 | $3.73 | $81.2M |
| 2019 | $0.02 | $3.91 | $58.0M |
| 2018 | $0.16 | $3.43 | $31.6M |
| 2017 | $0.91 | $3.75 | $43.7M |
| 2016 | $0.19 | $2.15 | $25.0M |
Looking for value across the whole market? The ASX screener lists every covered company trading below our fair-value models, refreshed each trading day.
Is Bega Cheese (BGA) trading above or below its estimated fair value?
The DCF valuation model puts Bega Cheese's estimated fair value at $2.87 per share as of 5 July 2026, compared with a market price of $5.94 as of 3 July 2026 - implying the shares trade at roughly 2.1 times the model's estimate, or about 51.7% above it. As with any discounted cash flow output, this figure depends on assumptions about future cash flows, growth and discount rates that sit behind the headline number but are not themselves disclosed, so it is best read as one model's estimate rather than a definitive fair value.
A conventional price-to-earnings comparison is complicated by swings in reported earnings: diluted EPS over the past five years has run $0.29 in FY2021, $0.08 in FY2022, -$0.75 in FY2023, $0.10 in FY2024 and -$0.03 in FY2025, moving between profit and loss in three of those five years. With the most recently reported EPS negative, a current P/E ratio cannot be meaningfully calculated, and a five-year median P/E is similarly hard to derive from a series that includes two loss-making years alongside modest per-share profits in the others.
For the DCF and any P/E-style comparison to carry more weight, earnings would need to stabilise closer to the positive levels seen in FY2021 and FY2024 rather than the losses reported in FY2023 and FY2025, since both approaches ultimately rest on the level and consistency of the company's underlying profit.
AI-assisted analysis generated from Craytheon's verified financial data · Updated 5 Jul 2026 · How this works
Data is general information only, not financial advice. Figures are as reported in company filings (some ASX companies report in USD); share prices are AUD.