Ampol Ltd · Valuation
ASX: ALD · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Fair value estimates vs price
A$ per share · models updated 26 Jul 2026
620.8% above fair value A$5.37, the median of our 2 model estimates.
Different models answer different questions. A wide spread between them usually means the market is pricing growth or risk that historical figures don't capture. Estimates are recomputed as new results and prices land.
EPS growth model
A$4.28Projects earnings per share forward at the historical growth rate, then discounts back to a present value.
P/E multiple
A$6.45Applies the historical median price-to-earnings ratio to current earnings per share.
Discounted cash flow
Not availableProjects the company's free cash flow forward and discounts it back to today, the most fundamental measure of what a business is worth.
Why it's missing: the recent free cash flow record doesn't support a reliable projection.
Trailing P/E history
Monthly price ÷ trailing diluted EPS · extremes above 100 excluded from stats
Per-share fundamentals
The inputs behind the models
| FY | EPS | Book value / sh | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $0.51 | $14.96 | $229.4M |
| 2023 | $2.30 | $16.65 | $972.5M |
| 2022 | $3.32 | $16.91 | $541.4M |
| 2021 | $2.34 | $13.96 | $310.4M |
| 2020 | $-1.94 | $12.91 | $41.0M |
| 2019 | $1.51 | $12.91 | $563.6M |
| 2018 | $2.15 | $12.99 | $304.0M |
| 2017 | $2.37 | $11.91 | $372.1M |
| 2016 | $2.32 | $10.69 | $605.0M |
| 2015 | $1.93 | $10.33 | $453.1M |
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What is Ampol (ALD) worth according to valuation models, and how does its P/E compare to its own history?
As of 3 July 2026, Ampol traded at $33.88 per share. Two valuation models applied to the company's reported earnings arrive at markedly lower estimates: a P/E ratio valuation of $6.39 per share and an EPS growth valuation of $4.24 per share. Both are model estimates derived from historical earnings patterns, not confirmed values, and each embeds different assumptions about which multiple or growth rate best represents the company going forward.
The company's current P/E ratio of 66.43 is more than five times its own five-year median P/E of 12.52. Diluted EPS has been volatile across the period, swinging from a loss of $1.94 per share in FY2020 to $3.32 in FY2022, $2.30 in FY2023, and just $0.51 in FY2024. A P/E this elevated is heavily influenced by the small FY2024 earnings base used as its denominator.
For the P/E ratio and EPS growth valuation estimates to be meaningful guides, earnings would need to stabilize closer to the levels seen earlier in the reported history rather than the depressed $0.51 diluted EPS of FY2024, and the five-year median P/E of 12.52 would need to remain a reasonable benchmark going forward. Given the swings in diluted EPS across the years shown, these model outputs should be read as estimates rather than definitive assessments of value.
AI-assisted analysis generated from Craytheon's verified financial data · Updated 4 Jul 2026 · How this works
Data is general information only, not financial advice. Figures are as reported in company filings (some ASX companies report in USD); share prices are AUD.