AGL Energy Ltd · Valuation
ASX: AGL · Utilities · Independent Power Producers
Fair value estimates vs price
A$ per share · models updated 26 Jul 2026
48.2% below fair value A$16.05, our discounted cash flow estimate.
Different models answer different questions. A wide spread between them usually means the market is pricing growth or risk that historical figures don't capture. Estimates are recomputed as new results and prices land.
Discounted cash flow
A$16.05Projects the company's free cash flow forward and discounts it back to today, the most fundamental measure of what a business is worth.
EPS growth model
Not availableProjects earnings per share forward at the historical growth rate, then discounts back to a present value.
Why it's missing: earnings were negative in FY25, so an earnings-based estimate isn't meaningful.
P/E multiple
Not availableApplies the historical median price-to-earnings ratio to current earnings per share.
Why it's missing: earnings were negative in FY25, so an earnings-based estimate isn't meaningful.
Trailing P/E history
Monthly price ÷ trailing diluted EPS · extremes above 100 excluded from stats
Per-share fundamentals
The inputs behind the models
| FY | EPS | Book value / sh | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $-0.15 | $7.22 | $-284.0M |
| 2024 | $1.05 | $8.05 | $1.4B |
| 2023 | $-1.88 | $7.61 | $288.0M |
| 2022 | $1.31 | $9.95 | $591.0M |
| 2021 | $-3.30 | $8.84 | $555.0M |
| 2020 | $1.57 | $12.59 | $1.4B |
| 2019 | $1.38 | $12.85 | $684.0M |
| 2018 | $2.42 | $12.78 | $1.4B |
| 2017 | $0.80 | $11.30 | $388.0M |
| 2016 | $-0.60 | $11.75 | $653.0M |
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What do valuation models estimate AGL Energy (AGL) is worth, and how does its P/E stack up?
The valuation models available put AGL Energy's estimated fair value at $16.05 per share as of 2026-07-05, using a discounted cash flow approach. That compares with a last close of $8.32 on 2026-07-03, meaning the model's estimate sits well above the traded price. No other valuation models are listed alongside the DCF figure, so this comparison rests on a single estimate rather than a cross-check of methods.
A conventional price-to-earnings comparison is difficult to draw here: diluted earnings per share came in at a loss of $0.15 in FY2025, the same as the median diluted EPS across FY2021-FY2025, a five-year span that itself swung from a $3.30 per-share loss in FY2021 to a $1.31 per-share profit in FY2022. With both the latest and median EPS in loss territory, a P/E ratio is not meaningful for either period.
For the DCF estimate to be a useful guide, the company's underlying cash flows would need to behave in line with the assumptions built into the model over time -- something that reported results, with net income moving between a $1.6B profit in FY2018 and a $2.1B loss in FY2021, do not yet demonstrate consistently. The estimate should be read as one model's projection, not a guaranteed outcome.
AI-assisted analysis generated from Craytheon's verified financial data · Updated 4 Jul 2026 · How this works
Data is general information only, not financial advice. Figures are as reported in company filings (some ASX companies report in USD); share prices are AUD.